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Good Bye Yesterday...
- By Nik Ogbulie
- Published January 5th, 2010
- MoneyWorld
- Unrated
Many seem to have made up their mind to forget the year 2009 in a jiffy. The reason being that it was the year everybody hoped the economic crisis would come to an end. But what Nigerians saw was a great converse. While high hopes welcome the year 2010, there is still no assurance that some bad workmen will not return to duty again. This is because the Nigerian economy is replete with people of Lamido Sanusi Lamido’s type. But things have got to change! NIK OGBULIE reports.
IT is a new decade! Buntings and firecrackers inundate the skies and the various epic high-rise structures. It was a happy moment for humanity, as the world moves gradually into a new age. Nigerians are not exempted from this joy as they had their own share of the celebrations across the various cities albeit poverty and unemployment. But amidst the celebrations are some nagging questions that would determine their tomorrow: will the stock market ever make a rebound? Will the CBN find the right rhythm for the collapsing economy? Will more Nigerians still lose their jobs? Will the president ever return to his seat? Can Nigerians make any reasonable impact in the two most important global tournaments that will grace the new decade? And most importantly, will investors return to Nigeria?
Barring all these challenges, Nigerians are ready to say good bye to last year and move to 2010. Nothing made the last year more disappointing to many than the mid-year gloom that upturned the anticipated recovery of the economy from the global financial crisis. By the time many Nigerians were getting ready to embrace a boom in their economy, the CBN came with a rash and phantom discovery of a collapsing banking sector. This single policy input sent shockwaves across the many segments of the economy and forced a total shutdown in the growth run of all the sectors. The CBN action , up to this period has not added any value to the way things should be .Expectations are that with the so called discovery of ‘rogues’ in the banking sector, things will begin to change. But that has not happened. Things are getting worse each day and the CBN seems to have no answer for the situation. There are no visible reasons to suggest the direction the CBN was going as the main target (the banking sector) is still comatose and is experiencing the worst moment in the last 40 years. This is why many still feel that the apex bank may not have seen anything in the contrary.
Barely six months into the CBN intervention, more issues are still starring the apex bank in the face. It appears that the CBN is getting more confused by the day as it has no other mystic card to play. This is serious because the situation last year may persist since there seems to be no new idea that will be infused into the precarious state of affairs, at least, not in the first quarter of the new year. If this happens, it means that Nigerians are in for a more difficult period of their lives. The blame that the new financial-year-end policy is contributory to the lull in all economic activities will be put to test in the first one month of the new year, and if nothing so dramatic happens, then everybody will be in for the worst.
This is why Nigerians are very ready to bid good bye to 2009 and would want to usher in a new year where a whole lot of expectations are supposedly wrapped. But from all visible indications, such expectations are not made of any Sterner stuff. They are still such expectations as we all saw since August 14, 2009 devoid of any strategic framework. These are no more time for the kind of gambits and trial-and-error schemes that had inundated the policy directions of the apex bank. Because Nigerians are a very docile lot, they tend to accept any tell-tale from half baked messiahs and mediocres that governments have been forcing down our throat since independence. In certain countries, policies such as we had witnessed in the last four months would have been rejected with resounding protests that would shake the foundation of any democracy unless the right thing was done. We live in a country where trial and error had been the norm and this has been the main reason for all the shaky false-starts we have had in our growth objectives. Soludo came and we hailed him, without asking some critical questions. And now Sanusi has mounted on that privilege to deal a devastating blow to an economy that is still under severe reconstruction.
There is no doubt that we must begin to see some growth signals from next week, otherwise the CBN must be called to tell us what it saw before it went on to dismantle the things that were on the ground. Nobody is saying that Sanusi is wrong by what he has done. What we are saying is that those wrong things that were perceived and which he has since treated must be showing some positive tendencies to add value to the economy, otherwise it could be assumed that he really was experimenting some acts in grandstanding. For instance, people protested the 2005 consolidation moves but immediately after the exercise the industry had a new outlook and all of us saw it. What are those qualities that make the present scenario very impressive and necessary? If after six months we do not have anything to see, then Sanusi saw nothing.
In 2009, most stock market indexes across the world rose to an average of about 20 per cent while the Nigerian market reverted to an inglorious slide after showing a mid-year recovery sign. Ever since, a crash of magnificent proportion has been our story, still somebody goes about to say that he is succeeding in a reform. There are the indications that Nigerians would want to redefine what the reforms are aimed to achieve. It is either that we want to start building a new economy from the scratch or that we do not understand what we are about doing at all. If at this time of globalization, our policy makers cannot understand the great linkage between banking and other segments of human endeavours, then we are all ready to wallow towards Golgotha, or an abyss of unimaginable proportions.
If in 2010 the banking industry does not quickly open the lid it placed on lending and other core conventional banking practices which are key to economic growth, then nothing will work. If the microfinance banks continue to die, the SMEs cannot access small funds, bank workers continue to lose jobs and fuel dealers fail to access funds for importation, then we will be heading towards the climaxing of the inglorious times commenced in 2009.
But, then what is the government doing? Virtually nothing! Nigerians are paying fortunes to acquire education, just because government is making no new major investment there. Any make-shift clinic is now a hospital and many lives have been lost even for minor ailments just because nobody cares. All these are part of what drive our GDP to a level that we cannot be seen as a developing country even when the statistics says the converse. Many people live in ram shackled abodes called houses and they are expected to be productive. Those who plunder national resources get government attention and this has become an incitement for new crimes and corruption. How do you stamp out corruption when the obviously corrupt use their resources to oppress others. This becomes an invitation for the status quo. All these held sway in 2009 and may continue in 2010 if nothing is done.
Has our president returned? If he has, would he be strong for the job ahead? If not what will happen? Will somebody be ready to interpret or misinterpret the constitution adequately or will a political party’s manifesto hold sway as many permutations seem to be suggesting? These are some of the decisions that will shape 2010. Chekina. Finish! Good bye, yesterday!
IT is a new decade! Buntings and firecrackers inundate the skies and the various epic high-rise structures. It was a happy moment for humanity, as the world moves gradually into a new age. Nigerians are not exempted from this joy as they had their own share of the celebrations across the various cities albeit poverty and unemployment. But amidst the celebrations are some nagging questions that would determine their tomorrow: will the stock market ever make a rebound? Will the CBN find the right rhythm for the collapsing economy? Will more Nigerians still lose their jobs? Will the president ever return to his seat? Can Nigerians make any reasonable impact in the two most important global tournaments that will grace the new decade? And most importantly, will investors return to Nigeria?
Barring all these challenges, Nigerians are ready to say good bye to last year and move to 2010. Nothing made the last year more disappointing to many than the mid-year gloom that upturned the anticipated recovery of the economy from the global financial crisis. By the time many Nigerians were getting ready to embrace a boom in their economy, the CBN came with a rash and phantom discovery of a collapsing banking sector. This single policy input sent shockwaves across the many segments of the economy and forced a total shutdown in the growth run of all the sectors. The CBN action , up to this period has not added any value to the way things should be .Expectations are that with the so called discovery of ‘rogues’ in the banking sector, things will begin to change. But that has not happened. Things are getting worse each day and the CBN seems to have no answer for the situation. There are no visible reasons to suggest the direction the CBN was going as the main target (the banking sector) is still comatose and is experiencing the worst moment in the last 40 years. This is why many still feel that the apex bank may not have seen anything in the contrary.
Barely six months into the CBN intervention, more issues are still starring the apex bank in the face. It appears that the CBN is getting more confused by the day as it has no other mystic card to play. This is serious because the situation last year may persist since there seems to be no new idea that will be infused into the precarious state of affairs, at least, not in the first quarter of the new year. If this happens, it means that Nigerians are in for a more difficult period of their lives. The blame that the new financial-year-end policy is contributory to the lull in all economic activities will be put to test in the first one month of the new year, and if nothing so dramatic happens, then everybody will be in for the worst.
This is why Nigerians are very ready to bid good bye to 2009 and would want to usher in a new year where a whole lot of expectations are supposedly wrapped. But from all visible indications, such expectations are not made of any Sterner stuff. They are still such expectations as we all saw since August 14, 2009 devoid of any strategic framework. These are no more time for the kind of gambits and trial-and-error schemes that had inundated the policy directions of the apex bank. Because Nigerians are a very docile lot, they tend to accept any tell-tale from half baked messiahs and mediocres that governments have been forcing down our throat since independence. In certain countries, policies such as we had witnessed in the last four months would have been rejected with resounding protests that would shake the foundation of any democracy unless the right thing was done. We live in a country where trial and error had been the norm and this has been the main reason for all the shaky false-starts we have had in our growth objectives. Soludo came and we hailed him, without asking some critical questions. And now Sanusi has mounted on that privilege to deal a devastating blow to an economy that is still under severe reconstruction.
There is no doubt that we must begin to see some growth signals from next week, otherwise the CBN must be called to tell us what it saw before it went on to dismantle the things that were on the ground. Nobody is saying that Sanusi is wrong by what he has done. What we are saying is that those wrong things that were perceived and which he has since treated must be showing some positive tendencies to add value to the economy, otherwise it could be assumed that he really was experimenting some acts in grandstanding. For instance, people protested the 2005 consolidation moves but immediately after the exercise the industry had a new outlook and all of us saw it. What are those qualities that make the present scenario very impressive and necessary? If after six months we do not have anything to see, then Sanusi saw nothing.
In 2009, most stock market indexes across the world rose to an average of about 20 per cent while the Nigerian market reverted to an inglorious slide after showing a mid-year recovery sign. Ever since, a crash of magnificent proportion has been our story, still somebody goes about to say that he is succeeding in a reform. There are the indications that Nigerians would want to redefine what the reforms are aimed to achieve. It is either that we want to start building a new economy from the scratch or that we do not understand what we are about doing at all. If at this time of globalization, our policy makers cannot understand the great linkage between banking and other segments of human endeavours, then we are all ready to wallow towards Golgotha, or an abyss of unimaginable proportions.
If in 2010 the banking industry does not quickly open the lid it placed on lending and other core conventional banking practices which are key to economic growth, then nothing will work. If the microfinance banks continue to die, the SMEs cannot access small funds, bank workers continue to lose jobs and fuel dealers fail to access funds for importation, then we will be heading towards the climaxing of the inglorious times commenced in 2009.
But, then what is the government doing? Virtually nothing! Nigerians are paying fortunes to acquire education, just because government is making no new major investment there. Any make-shift clinic is now a hospital and many lives have been lost even for minor ailments just because nobody cares. All these are part of what drive our GDP to a level that we cannot be seen as a developing country even when the statistics says the converse. Many people live in ram shackled abodes called houses and they are expected to be productive. Those who plunder national resources get government attention and this has become an incitement for new crimes and corruption. How do you stamp out corruption when the obviously corrupt use their resources to oppress others. This becomes an invitation for the status quo. All these held sway in 2009 and may continue in 2010 if nothing is done.
Has our president returned? If he has, would he be strong for the job ahead? If not what will happen? Will somebody be ready to interpret or misinterpret the constitution adequately or will a political party’s manifesto hold sway as many permutations seem to be suggesting? These are some of the decisions that will shape 2010. Chekina. Finish! Good bye, yesterday!
